ONEOK INC /NEW/ (OKE)·Q4 2025 Earnings Summary
ONEOK Beats EPS, Revenue Soft as Midstream Giant Posts 12th Straight Year of EBITDA Growth
February 24, 2026 · by Fintool AI Agent
ONEOK delivered a mixed Q4 2025, beating EPS estimates by 3.3% but missing revenue expectations as lower commodity prices and narrower differentials weighed on results. The company reported adjusted EBITDA of $2.15 billion, extending its streak to 12 consecutive years of EBITDA growth. Full-year 2025 net income attributable to ONEOK rose 12% to $3.39 billion ($5.42/share), driven by the successful integration of EnLink and Medallion acquisitions and nearly $500 million in cumulative synergies since the Magellan closing.
Shares fell ~6.4% following the earnings call to $81.43, a sharper selloff than the initial after-hours reaction, as investors digested conservative 2026 guidance and commodity headwinds.
Did ONEOK Beat Earnings?
ONEOK beat on the bottom line but came up short on revenue. The EPS beat was driven by one-time contract settlements ($23M) in Natural Gas G&P and higher NGL inventory optimization gains. Revenue softness reflected lower realized commodity prices (particularly NGLs) and narrower product price differentials versus elevated expectations.
Full-Year 2025 Highlights:
Ask Fintool AI AgentWhat Did Management Guide?
2026 Guidance:
The guidance represents flat-to-modest growth versus 2025, reflecting management's conservative commodity price assumptions (WTI $55-60/bbl) partially offset by $150M of incremental synergies.
Key 2026 Drivers:
- Volume Growth: Higher Permian processing and NGL volumes
- Completed Projects: Denver refined products expansion (mid-2026), Medford frac Phase I (Q4 2026)
- Synergies:
$650M cumulative by year-end 2026 ($500M captured + $150M incremental)
How Did the Stock React?
OKE shares sold off sharply following the earnings call, falling -6.4% to $81.43 — a much steeper decline than the initial -2.8% after-hours move. The reaction reflects:
- Revenue miss: Despite the EPS beat, top-line weakness signals volume/pricing pressure
- Conservative 2026 guidance: Midpoint EBITDA essentially flat YoY at $8.1B
- Commodity headwinds: WTI crude premise of $55-60/bbl well below 2025 levels
- Weather impacts: Winter Storm Fern pushed January G&P and NGL volumes ~10% below expectations
Year-to-Date: Post-earnings selloff erases much of OKE's YTD gains.
What Changed From Last Quarter?
Positive Shifts:
- Rocky Mountain NGL Volumes: +15% YoY in Q4, driven by producer activity in the Bakken
- Debt Reduction: Extinguished $3.1B of long-term debt in 2025, including $1.75B in Q4; leverage ratio down to 3.8x
- Synergy Capture: Nearly $500M cumulative since Magellan closing (Sept 2023), ~$250M realized in 2025 alone
Negative Shifts:
- Lower NGL Price Realizations: Narrower Conway-to-Mont Belvieu differentials (5¢ vs 3¢ in Q4 2024)
- Natural Gas Pipelines: Segment EBITDA down 37% YoY due to 2024 interstate pipeline divestiture
- Producer Activity Moderation: WTI price decline from ~$72 pre-"Liberation Day" to $55-63 range impacting drilling activity
Key Management Quotes
"2025 was a defining year for ONEOK. We delivered double-digit earnings growth, expanded margins, and materially strengthened our balance sheet, all while integrating major acquisitions and advancing long cycle growth projects."
— Pierce Norton, President & CEO
"In 2026, ONEOK will celebrate its 120th anniversary. I want to take a moment to recognize the contributions of those who came before us, that allow us the opportunity to do what we do today."
— Pierce Norton
"We've realized nearly $500 million of total synergies since closing the Magellan acquisition in September of 2023, far exceeding our original expectations."
— Pierce Norton
Segment Performance
Q4 2025 Segment Results:
Natural Gas Liquids: Benefited from higher Rocky Mountain (+26M increase) and Gulf Coast (+21M) volumes, offset by narrower differentials (-15M) and lower Mid-Continent fee rates (-7M).
Refined Products & Crude: Declined due to lower BridgeTex Pipeline earnings (-87M one-time 2024 deferred revenue recognition), partially offset by Medallion/EnLink contribution (+23M).
Natural Gas G&P: Strong growth from EnLink (+37M) and higher volumes (+37M) across all regions, despite lower NGL price realizations (-36M). One-time contract settlements added $21M.
Ask Fintool AI AgentCapital Allocation & Financial Position
2025 Actions:
- Dividends: $2.58B paid; +4% increase to $1.07/share quarterly ($4.28 annualized)
- Debt Paydown: ~$3.1B of long-term debt extinguished
- Share Repurchases: $62M
- CapEx: $3.15B (growth + maintenance)
Balance Sheet Strength:
- Net Debt/EBITDA: 3.8x (Q4 annualized, ex-transaction costs)
- Cash: $78M
- Total Debt: $32.0B
Growth Projects Pipeline
Data Center & Power Demand Opportunity
ONEOK highlighted significant potential from natural gas demand growth driven by data centers, LNG, and industrial users. On the earnings call, management confirmed "advanced discussions with hyperscalers" on power generation projects, noting opportunities are "scaling up" from initial smaller projects.
Key advantages:
- Strategic asset locations in Oklahoma, Texas, and Louisiana near key demand hubs
- Direct connections to major LNG and industrial customers
- Natural gas storage expansion opportunities (GIST: 2 Bcf → 10 Bcf by 2028)
- Eiger Express success demonstrates demand pull from Gulf Coast end markets
Risks & Concerns
- Commodity Price Sensitivity: 2026 guidance assumes WTI $55-60/bbl; further weakness would pressure producer activity and volumes
- Integration Execution: EnLink/Medallion synergies must continue tracking to maintain growth trajectory
- Leverage: Net debt remains elevated at ~$32B despite paydowns
- Tariff Uncertainty: Management flagged potential inflationary impacts from announced or future tariffs
Q&A Highlights
On 2026 conservatism and upside opportunities: CFO Walt Hulse noted the company assumed $55-60 WTI pricing and acknowledged "meaningful potential" for higher commodity prices providing upside to guidance. Sheridan Swords highlighted discretionary ethane recovery in the Bakken and spot offloads in the Permian as areas where marketing teams historically find incremental value.
On $150M incremental synergies: "They are all identified, and they are in the plan, and they are underway... We have a very high confidence that we are gonna be able to capture these synergies in 2026." — Sheridan Swords
On data center negotiations: Management confirmed "advanced discussions with hyperscalers" on power generation projects, noting these opportunities are "scaling up" from initial smaller projects and expressing optimism about announcing deals "in the fairly near future."
On Permian growth: Despite the 2025 volume shortfall, management sees mid-to-high single digit G&P growth in the Permian in 2026, supported by existing contracts and active RFPs. The Shadowfax plant relocation and two third-party plants will connect to the system in 2026.
On Bakken inventory: Pierce Norton emphasized 5,000 identified wells yet to be drilled on dedicated acreage, representing ~15+ years of inventory at current rig rates — a key underpinning for long-term volume visibility.
On M&A outlook: CEO Pierce Norton stated the company doesn't see "any really glaring holes in our portfolio" and will remain "intentional and disciplined" on M&A, focusing on organic growth and integration execution.
Eiger Express Pipeline: 100% Contracted
A key positive from the call: ONEOK announced that the expanded Eiger Express Pipeline is now 100% contracted for a minimum of 10 years at 3.7 Bcf/d capacity (expanded from initial 2.5 Bcf/d).
The expansion reflects both Permian supply momentum and demand pull from LNG exports, industrial customers, and power generation along the Gulf Coast. This provides significant long-term fee-based earnings visibility and validates ONEOK's strategic positioning in the Permian gas takeaway market.
Forward Catalysts
- End of Q1 2026: Shadowfax plant in-service (relocated from North Texas)
- Early Q3 2026: Delaware natural gas processing expansions (+110 MMcf/d)
- Mid-Q3 2026: Denver refined products pipeline expansion completion
- Q4 2026: Medford fractionator Phase I completion (100,000 bpd)
- Q1 2027: Medford Phase II online (+110,000 bpd)
- Mid-2027: Bighorn Processing Plant (300 MMcf/d)
- 2028: GIST storage expansion complete (2 Bcf to 10 Bcf)
- Early 2028: Texas City LPG export terminal start-up (50% JV with MPLX)
Bottom Line
ONEOK delivered solid Q4 results with an EPS beat despite revenue softness from commodity headwinds. The 12-year EBITDA growth streak and nearly $500M in realized synergies demonstrate strong execution on the EnLink/Medallion integration. However, conservative 2026 guidance reflecting $55-60 WTI assumptions and the ~6.4% post-call selloff suggest the market wanted more. The 100% contracted Eiger Express expansion and hyperscaler data center negotiations are positives, while the ~90% fee-based model provides downside protection.
Ask Fintool AI AgentData sourced from ONEOK Q4 2025 earnings call transcript, earnings release, and S&P Global estimates.